Find Betting Odds and Bets for Blue Jays vs Braves – September 6th, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Braves, with a record of 76-64, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 67-74, struggling below average. This matchup is particularly significant as the Braves are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 3-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies on September 5. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays also fell short, losing 4-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Max Fried, the Braves’ projected starter, is currently one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranked 9th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a Win/Loss record of 8-8 this season, Fried boasts a solid ERA of 3.52 and has been effective at limiting earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.1 earned runs in 6.0 innings today. Fried’s high groundball rate of 58% is particularly advantageous against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season with just 94.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman is slated to take the mound for the Blue Jays. While Gausman has a decent Win/Loss record of 12-10 and an ERA of 4.07, his xERA of 4.83 suggests he could be due for a downturn. He is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing about 2.8 earned runs.

The Braves’ offense ranks 14th overall and 10th in home runs, led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been a key contributor this season. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has been performing well recently, but the overall team struggles are evident.

With the Braves projected to score an average of 4.41 runs today and the Blue Jays at just 3.70, the projections favor Atlanta, making them a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -165. Given the current dynamics, the Braves appear well-positioned to secure a victory in this interleague matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Compared to average, Kevin Gausman has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.9 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.1-mph now compared to just 92.1-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Despite posting a .400 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has had some very good luck given the .052 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 116 games (+28.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 54 away games (+12.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+17.50 Units / 36% ROI)