Explore White Sox vs Royals Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 8/16/25

Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals

On August 16, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in the second game of their series. The Royals enter this matchup with a record of 61-61, showcasing an average season, while the White Sox struggle significantly at 44-78, marking one of the worst records in the league. In their last encounter, the Royals secured a 3-1 victory, further emphasizing the disparity between these two teams.

Kansas City is projected to start Michael Lorenzen, a right-handed pitcher with a 5-8 record and a 4.61 ERA this season. Lorenzen has shown flashes of effectiveness, particularly in his last start on July 6, where he went seven innings without allowing an earned run. However, his overall standing at #196 in Power Rankings indicates he has been less effective compared to his peers. Lorenzen’s projections suggest he’ll pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters but also giving up a concerning 5.2 hits.

On the other side, the White Sox will send Sean Burke to the mound. With a 4-9 record and a 4.26 ERA, Burke’s performance has also been subpar, and his elevated xFIP of 4.81 suggests he might face challenges moving forward. He struggled in his last outing on August 9, lasting only three innings and allowing two earned runs. The projections indicate he may pitch 4.8 innings while yielding 2.9 earned runs, with a troubling walk rate and high flyball percentage that could play into the Royals’ strengths.

Offensively, the Royals rank 24th overall in MLB, struggling particularly with power, sitting 28th in home runs. However, they do rank 10th in stolen bases, showcasing some speed on the basepaths. The White Sox, conversely, rank 29th in nearly every offensive category, including batting average and overall run production.

Given the Royals’ current form and the White Sox’s significant struggles, the Royals are favored with a moneyline of -145. With an implied team total of 5.09 runs, they have the opportunity to capitalize on Burke’s vulnerabilities, potentially extending their recent success against an underperforming opponent.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Sean Burke has posted a 4.79 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Miguel Vargas has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Michael Lorenzen was rolling in his previous game started and notched 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  As it relates to his home runs, Randal Grichuk has had bad variance on his side this year. His 21.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a unit place 26th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 109 games (+23.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 97 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 53% ROI)