Explore White Sox vs Royals Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 8/16/25

Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals

On August 16, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in a matchup that carries significant weight for both teams. The Royals, standing at 61-61, are having an average season but are still in contention for a Wild Card spot. In contrast, the White Sox have struggled mightily this season with a record of 44-78, making them one of the worst teams in MLB. In their last meeting, the Royals emerged victorious, and they will look to build on that momentum.

Kansas City is projected to start Michael Lorenzen, who has had a rocky season with a 5-8 record and a 4.61 ERA. Although Lorenzen ranks as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, he projects to pitch about 5.3 innings while allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs today. His performance will be critical, especially against a White Sox offense that ranks 29th in MLB and has struggled to generate consistent scoring.

On the other side, Sean Burke will take the mound for Chicago. With a 4-9 record and a 4.26 ERA, Burke has also faced challenges this year. He projects to pitch around 4.8 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, which is concerning given that he is a high-walk pitcher facing a Royals offense that ranks 1st in the league for fewest walks drawn.

While both offenses have struggled, the Royals’ offense ranks 24th overall but shows some promise with a solid batting average. They are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -165, indicating a strong belief in their ability to secure a win. The projected game total sits at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting expectations for a relatively high-scoring affair. With both pitchers having their issues, this game could be an opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on their home field advantage and continue their push for a better season.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Sean Burke has posted a 4.79 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Miguel Vargas has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Michael Lorenzen was rolling in his previous game started and notched 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (34.0) suggests that Salvador Perez has suffered from bad luck this year with his 27.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a unit place 26th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 109 games (+23.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 97 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Luis Robert has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)