Explore White Sox vs Guardians Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 4/8/25

Chicago White Sox

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on April 8, 2025, both teams are struggling out of the gate this season. The Guardians currently sit at 3-6, while the White Sox have a record of 2-7, leading to an expected battle of two underperforming squads. Notably, the Guardians have the 31st ranked offense in MLB, which paints a grim picture for their offensive production, especially given they rank 51st in team batting average. In their last outing, the Guardians faced off against a tough opponent and were unable to secure a win, continuing their disappointing start.

Projected to start for the Guardians is Ben Lively, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled, with an ERA of 6.75 through two starts. However, his xFIP of 5.18 indicates he might have been a bit unlucky and could improve. Lively’s low strikeout rate of 17.5% could present challenges against a White Sox lineup that is also among the league’s least strikeout-prone offenses. On the other side, Shane Smith takes the mound for the White Sox. Although he has performed decently with a 3.18 ERA, his xFIP of 5.50 suggests he might regress, especially against a Guardians lineup that can hit for power, ranking 13th in home runs this season.

With both teams in desperate need of a win, the Guardians have an edge with their top-ranked bullpen, rated #3 in MLB. Additionally, Cleveland’s implied team total of 4.35 runs reflects the oddsmakers’ belief that they can capitalize on Chicago’s weak pitching. Given the context of both teams’ underwhelming performances thus far, the Guardians look to solidify their position with a strong showing against a familiar foe.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Shane Smith performed well in his previous GS and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Andrew Vaughn’s quickness has decreased this season. His 26.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.05 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In today’s game, Miguel Vargas is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Ben Lively (36.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Steven Kwan has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 6.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 away games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)