Explore Twins vs Astros Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 6/15/25

Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will face off against the Minnesota Twins on June 15, 2025, at Minute Maid Park, marking the third game of their series. The Astros currently hold a solid record of 40-30, showcasing a strong season thus far, while the Twins sit slightly below them at 36-34, having an average performance overall.

In their last clash on June 14, the Astros secured a close victory, edging out the Twins 3-2. The Astros will look to continue their momentum, especially with Brandon Walter set to take the mound. Walter has been impressive this season, boasting a remarkable ERA of 1.64 and ranking as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is above average. However, his 2.45 xFIP indicates that he may have benefitted from some good fortune thus far. Walter’s projection for today is to pitch approximately 5.1 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, though he might struggle with hitting, projected to give up 5.3 hits and 1.2 walks.

Conversely, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, who has been having a tough year. With a 5.74 ERA and a 2-3 record over 9 starts, he ranks among the worst pitchers in the league. His projections for this game suggest he will pitch 5.3 innings, yielding 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.5 hits and 1.6 walks could be detrimental against a team like the Astros.

The Astros’ offense ranks 14th overall in the league and 10th in batting average, while the Twins sit at 15th with a slightly lower batting average. According to projections, the Astros are favored, with an implied team total of 4.10 runs compared to the Twins’ 3.90. Given the Astros’ strong performance and Walter’s pitching prowess, they may be set to capitalize on the Twins’ struggles on the mound.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Simeon Woods Richardson was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Rating 7th-steepest in the game this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a group have put up a 15.1° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to evaluate power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Brandon Walter is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+160)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 78.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-200)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 51% ROI)