Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Pirates – June 27th, 2025

New York Mets

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 27, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Mets at PNC Park for the first game of their series. The Mets come into this matchup riding high after a dominant 4-0 victory in their last game, while the Pirates are still reeling from a 4-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs. The stakes are high for the Pirates, who are struggling this season with a record of 32-50, compared to the Mets’ impressive 48-34 mark.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, bringing a mixed bag of performance this year. Despite a disappointing 1-10 record, his 4.02 ERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 3.24 FIP, which is 0.78 points lower than his ERA. Keller’s ability to limit walks could play a crucial role against a Mets offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks drawn. Meanwhile, David Peterson will start for New York, and while he boasts a solid 2.98 ERA, his recent struggles saw him allow 5 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last start.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit dead last in home runs. In contrast, the Mets are 6th in MLB for home runs, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The projections suggest that Keller may allow 3.1 earned runs and 6.1 hits on average, which could spell trouble for the Pirates against a potent Mets lineup.

With the Pirates’ offense lacking firepower and their bullpen ranking 18th, they enter this contest as underdogs with a moneyline of +120. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation of a competitive matchup, but the Pirates will need a strong performance from Keller to pull off an upset against the favored Mets.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have 9 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over David Peterson today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+120)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #23 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 75% ROI)