Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Pirates – June 27th, 2025

New York Mets

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on June 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in starkly contrasting positions in the standings. The Pirates, sitting at 32-50, are struggling this season, while the Mets boast a solid 48-34 record, positioning themselves among the contenders. Notably, the Mets are coming off a stellar performance, having secured a significant victory in their last outing, which adds to their momentum.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for the Pirates, bringing with him a Win/Loss record of 1-10 this season. While his 4.02 ERA suggests he’s above average, his 3.25 FIP indicates he has been unlucky. However, he faces a Mets lineup that ranks as the 5th best in MLB, a daunting challenge for the struggling right-hander. Keller’s low walk rate may play to his advantage against a patient Mets offense that has drawn the 4th most walks in the league.

On the other side, David Peterson is set to pitch for New York. Despite being labeled a below-average pitcher in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, he has performed well this season with a 2.98 ERA and a 5-3 record. His high groundball rate aligns him well against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in home runs this year. The projections suggest that Peterson will allow around 2.8 earned runs, which could suffice against a team that ranks 29th in offensive output.

Given the current odds, the Pirates are positioned as underdogs with a moneyline of +140, suggesting some value in their chances to upset the favored Mets. However, with the Mets’ strong lineup and solid pitching, it could be a challenging night for Pittsburgh at PNC Park.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over David Peterson today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-155)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-165)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI)