
Milwaukee Brewers

Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-110
As August wraps up, the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in a crucial series at Rogers Centre. Both teams are jockeying for position, with the Blue Jays currently sitting at 78-58 and the Brewers at 85-52. Milwaukee is enjoying a great season, while Toronto is having a solid year but has recently struggled, dropping their last game against the Brewers 4-1.
The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Max Scherzer for the Blue Jays and Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers. Scherzer, ranked as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season with a 5-2 record and a 3.82 ERA . However, he’s projected to allow 2.6 earned runs today, which is above average. Scherzer’s control could work in his favor against a Brewers offense that ranks 5th in the league for walks.
On the other hand, Woodruff is having a stronger campaign, sitting at 41st in the rankings with a 5-1 record and an impressive 3.10 ERA . He projects to allow 2.6 earned runs as well, with a slightly better expected ERA of 2.33. This matchup could favor the Blue Jays, as their offense ranks 2nd overall in MLB, showcasing a potent attack that has been significantly productive despite their recent loss.
With the Blue Jays’ batting average leading the league at .300 and the Brewers not far behind at .270, fans can expect a high-scoring affair. The current game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an expectation for a competitive battle. Despite the Brewers’ win in the last game, the Blue Jays’ strong offensive capabilities give them a solid chance to bounce back and take the series lead.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Brandon Woodruff’s high utilization rate of his fastball (64.2% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Andrew Vaughn has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-110)Among every team in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)This season, George Springer has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.7 mph compared to last year’s 93.2 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 100 games (+20.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 104 games (+30.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 56% ROI)