Explore the Pirates vs Tigers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Detroit Tigers

The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-45) will battle the Detroit Tigers (47-27) on Thursday Night. Oddsmakers peg the Tigers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 73%, leaving the Pirates with a 27% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Pirates have an implied team total of 2.38 compared to 4.12 for the Tigers.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Paul Skenes has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.1-mph average to last season’s 96.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a group rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Keider Montero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In today’s matchup, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 59 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+14.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)