Explore the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Yankees Team Stats and Insights – 9/06/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on September 6, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, the significance of this American League East matchup is palpable. The Yankees enter the game with a record of 78-63, while the Blue Jays boast a solid 82-59 record, positioning them as key competitors in the playoff chase. In their previous encounter, the Yankees suffered a disappointing 7-1 defeat to the Blue Jays, who will be aiming for their second consecutive victory against New York.

Luis Gil is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. While his ERA of 3.68 suggests some effectiveness this season, his 4.99 xFIP indicates a potential regression ahead, signaling inconsistency. Gil has started just six games in 2025, albeit with a respectable Win/Loss record of 2-1. His ability to pitch more than 4.9 innings could be critical against a strong Blue Jays lineup.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will be making his 29th start of the season for the Blue Jays. With an ERA of 4.10, Bassitt is considered an average pitcher, and against such a potent offense, he will need to elevate his performance. Both pitchers come off solid outings; Gil struck out seven batters in his last start, while Bassitt allowed only two earned runs in six innings.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in the majors in home runs, which could be pivotal against Bassitt, whose projections indicate exposure to significant hits (5.0 on average). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are 2nd in team offensive rankings, underscoring the expected run production for both sides. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, it promises to be an exciting clash, and with the Yankees marked as the betting favorites at -140, they will seek to bounce back from their recent loss and reclaim momentum in the AL East.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In the last 7 days, Addison Barger’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Luis Gil’s slider percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (25.9% to 31.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Ben Rice has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season’s 90-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-140)
  The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 116 games (+25.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)