Explore the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Yankees Team Stats and Insights – 9/06/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 6, 2025, in a pivotal American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees find themselves in a solid position with a record of 78-63, though they remain behind the Blue Jays, who are enjoying a strong season at 82-59. This game is particularly significant as it follows the Yankees’ recent victory in their last matchup against the Blue Jays, reinforcing their desire to maintain momentum.

On the mound for the Yankees is Luis Gil, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Despite a decent ERA of 3.68, advanced metrics suggest that Gil has been somewhat lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.99, indicating potential challenges ahead. He projects to pitch about 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, which could put pressure on the Yankees’ offense.

Facing Gil will be Chris Bassitt, also a right-handed pitcher, who has had a more established season with an 11-7 record and a 4.10 ERA. While Bassitt is considered an average pitcher, he projects to pitch 5.0 innings today, allowing 3.2 earned runs on average. Both pitchers may struggle against high-powered offenses, but the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading the league in home runs. This could be crucial as they look to capitalize on any mistakes from the Blue Jays’ pitching staff.

Offensively, the Yankees will rely on their top hitters to deliver, especially given their elite ranking. The Blue Jays, while also potent with the 2nd best offense and 1st in batting average, have had issues with consistency in recent matchups. This game promises to be a high-scoring affair, with a Game Total currently set at 9.5 runs, and the Yankees hold a solid implied team total of 5.21 runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Luis Gil’s slider percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (25.9% to 31.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Trent Grisham has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-155)
  The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 116 games (+25.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
  Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)