Explore the D-Backs vs Nationals Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, April 6, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to Nationals Park on April 6, 2025, they find themselves struggling at 2-6 this season. The Nationals are mired in a tough stretch, but they did manage to edge the Diamondbacks in their last encounter, winning 4-3 on April 5. Meanwhile, Arizona stands at a solid 5-4, showcasing a balanced offensive attack that ranks 7th in MLB.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Corbin Burnes for the Diamondbacks. Williams, despite his poor standing as the 242nd best starting pitcher, can take solace in a 3.33 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) that hints at an uptick in his performance. However, he has been fortunate to avoid giving up walks, which could be crucial against a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for walks taken.

On the flip side, Burnes is the 37th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics and boasts a 2.79 xFIP, suggesting he, too, has been slightly unlucky. His high strikeout rate, at 38.1%, may play a significant role against a Nationals offense that has struggled and ranks 33rd in MLB overall. With the Nationals batting lineup projected to average just 3.25 runs today, they will need a power surge, especially since they have hit 12 home runs this season, good for 6th in the league.

In terms of betting odds, the Nationals are currently significant underdogs at +155, suggesting that while they may pull off an upset after their recent win, the Diamondbacks are favored to take control of the series. Ultimately, the projections indicate a potential for Washington to exceed expectations, but they will need to capitalize on their power advantage to make it happen.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-175)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Eugenio Suarez has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Trevor Williams has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Today’s version of the D-Backs projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .323 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Trevor Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1200/-7000)
  Josh Bell’s quickness has fallen off this year. His 25.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 21.02 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 46 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.70 Units / 78% ROI)