Explore the Cardinals vs Reds Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Saturday, August 30, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals face off on August 30, 2025, it’s pivotal to note that the Reds lost to the Cardinals in their last game by a score of 7-5. With both teams hovering around the .500 mark—Cincinnati sitting at 68-67 and St. Louis at 67-69—each game carries extra significance in the chase for a potential Wild Card spot.

The matchup features Andrew Abbott for the Reds, who boasts an impressive 8-4 record and an extraordinary ERA of 2.62. However, his recent outing raised eyebrows as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Braves on August 23. The projections suggest that Abbott will pitch about 5.3 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, although he has struggled with allowing an average of 4.8 hits per start, which could be concerning against a Cardinals team looking to capitalize.

On the other side, Michael McGreevy is set to take the mound for St. Louis, holding a 5-2 record this season. His ERA of 4.43 lands him in the average range, yet his 3.66 FIP indicates he could be due for a more favorable outing. McGreevy’s projections suggest he might pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, though he will need to improve on his tendency to issue walks—averaging 1.1 per start.

The Reds’ offense ranks 18th in MLB, and while their power numbers are weak, their best hitter is performing well, with a recent OPS of 0.911 over the last week. In contrast, the Cardinals sit at 22nd in offensive rankings, which could work to Abbott’s advantage considering his flyball-heavy approach against a team lacking power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Michael McGreevy’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 22nd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Lux stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds ranks them as the #28 team in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 107 games (+24.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+8.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)