Explore the Brewers vs Braves Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Atlanta Braves

The Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Atlanta Braves on August 5, 2025, at Truist Park in what is the second game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with contrasting records: the Brewers stand at 68-44, showcasing a strong season, while the Braves sit at 47-64, struggling to find their footing. The Brewers recently secured a win against the Braves, building momentum as they look to solidify their position in the playoff chase.

On the mound, Atlanta is slated to start Joey Wentz, who has had a tough season, ranking as the 208th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and a high ERA of 5.02, Wentz is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. His ability to keep hitters off balance has been hindered by a below-average strikeout rate of 4.4 batters.

In stark contrast, Milwaukee will send Freddy Peralta to the hill. Peralta, boasting a Win/Loss record of 12-5 and a spectacular ERA of 3.08, is ranked 37th among starters and projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing only 2.3 earned runs. His solid form could be key against a Braves offense that ranks 19th overall in the league and struggles particularly in batting average, where they rank 20th.

Despite being the underdog in this matchup with a moneyline of +125, the Braves’ lineup has shown flashes of talent, and the Brewers’ bullpen, though good at 10th in MLB, may be tested against a capable Braves offense. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive match ahead, but the Brewers’ strong recent performance and superior pitching should give them the edge in this contest.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Brandon Lockridge has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Joey Wentz will average a total of 2.1 singles in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nick Allen’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 84-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 78.6-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 62 games (+23.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-5000)
  Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)