Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
(+100/-120)+130
As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on June 8, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. Currently sitting at 22-43, the White Sox are struggling significantly this season, while the Royals hold a more respectable 33-32 record. With both teams looking to gain momentum in this American League Central matchup, the stakes are high, especially after the Royals edged out the White Sox in a tight contest yesterday.
Mike Vasil is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. Despite ranking as the 246th best starting pitcher in MLB, his impressive ERA of 1.89 suggests he has had some good fortune this year. However, with a 5.11 xFIP indicating potential regression, he may face challenges against a Royals lineup that has been relatively patient, given their status as the team with the fewest walks in MLB. Vasil’s tendency to issue walks (13.0 BB%) could play a significant role in this matchup.
On the other hand, Michael Lorenzen will start for the Royals. Although he has also struggled this season, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he could improve as luck begins to turn in his favor. Facing a White Sox offense that ranks 28th in runs scored and home runs, Lorenzen may find success, especially given the White Sox’s low power numbers.
Interestingly, the projections indicate the Royals should outperform their implied team total of 4.94 runs, while the White Sox’s average implied team total of 4.06 runs seems optimistic. With the Royals’ bullpen ranked 13th in the league, they may have the upper hand if the game remains close. This matchup presents a compelling narrative as both teams battle for pride in a season that has not gone as planned.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Tallying 92.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Michael Lorenzen falls in the 80th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Over the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Mike Vasil has been lucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 1.89 figure is a good deal lower than his 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Luis Robert Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+130)The 3rd-worst projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Chicago White Sox.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 games (+25.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Palacios – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 55% ROI)