Explore Reds vs Angels Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 8/18/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Los Angeles Angels

On August 18, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Cincinnati Reds at Angel Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Angels, currently sitting at 60-64, are having a disappointing season, while the Reds, at 65-60, are enjoying a solid campaign. The stakes are high for both teams as they look to build momentum heading into the latter part of the season.

Victor Mederos is projected to take the mound for the Angels, but he comes into this game with a challenging profile. Ranked as the 309th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Mederos has struggled this season, sporting a 5.63 ERA and a concerning 6.36 FIP. His projections suggest he might only pitch about 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which does not inspire confidence. Mederos’s low strikeout rate could be a double-edged sword against a Reds offense that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts.

On the flip side, Brady Singer will take the ball for Cincinnati. Although he is also considered below average, his 4.31 ERA indicates he has been more effective than Mederos this season. Singer has pitched 24 games and projects to go 5.5 innings today, also allowing 2.8 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Angels rank 18th in MLB, with their power numbers buoyed by a 5th place ranking in home runs, while the Reds sit at a mid-tier 15th overall. The Angels’ best hitter has been on a tear recently, with 8 hits and 4 home runs over the last week, which could provide a crucial boost against a Reds bullpen that ranks 15th in the league.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets view this matchup as closely contested, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. Despite the Angels’ struggles, they could capitalize on their power advantage, making them a compelling option for bettors looking to back a team with a higher potential than their current odds suggest.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Brady Singer has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under Hits
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  When estimating his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Victor Mederos – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Victor Mederos will benefit from matching up with 6 hitters in the projected lineup who share the same handedness in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jo Adell has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Bryce Teodosio, Jo Adell, Mike Trout).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+20.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 125 games (+24.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Luis Rengifo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+22.00 Units / 367% ROI)