Explore Player Props Preview for Reds vs Mets – 9/7/24

Cincinnati Reds

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations within the National League landscape. The Mets, with a 77-64 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds sit at 68-74, struggling to find their footing. Last night, the Mets showed their offensive prowess, defeating the Reds decisively, a continuation of their strong run.

Today’s matchup features Jose Quintana, who has had his ups and downs this season, projected to start for the Mets. Despite being ranked as the 206th best starting pitcher in the league, his recent performances show he can still be effective, especially against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in the most strikeouts. Quintana’s average ERA of 4.27 masks a concerning trend in his peripheral stats, implying he could be due for some regression. However, he projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs, which could be enough for the Mets if their bats remain hot.

On the other side, Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Reds, boasting a solid 3.13 ERA but with a low projection of just 3.6 innings pitched. This indicates a lack of depth, which could be exploited by the Mets’ offense, currently ranked 10th overall in baseball. Their ability to hit home runs puts them in a favorable position against Junis, who has struggled to limit damage in his appearances.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Mets will score around 5.05 runs today, and with their inherent offensive advantages, they are poised to extend their recent success against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Jakob Junis – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jakob Junis to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  TJ Friedl has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 24.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 14.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 16.2° angle is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Jose Quintana has added a slider to his arsenal this year and has thrown it 5.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  J.D. Martinez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-150)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 90 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 107 games (+9.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+15.10 Units / 302% ROI)