Explore Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Guardians – 6/27/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to take on the St. Louis Cardinals on June 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack as the season progresses. The Guardians stand at 40-39, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 44-38. This Interleague matchup holds significance as it marks the first game in the series between these two clubs.

In their last outing, the Guardians suffered a 6-0 defeat, extending their struggles at the plate, as they currently rank 25th in the league in offensive production. With Luis Ortiz set to take the mound for Cleveland, the Guardians hope he can build on his last performance, where he pitched six innings of shutout ball on June 21, striking out 10 batters. Ortiz’s win-loss record stands at 4-8 with an ERA of 4.30, indicating he’s been a tad unlucky this season. While he projects to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs today, his tendency to give up hits (5.6 on average) could present a challenge.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, who boasts a strong win-loss record of 7-2 and a solid ERA of 3.72. Although Gray’s recent game on June 21 saw him allow just one earned run over five innings, he too has experienced some misfortune, as suggested by his xFIP of 3.11. Gray’s ability to limit runs today is crucial, especially as the Cardinals look to capitalize on the Guardians’ offensive woes.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Guardians holding a moneyline of +115, betting markets indicate a closely contested matchup. Both teams seek to turn around their recent fortunes, making this an intriguing game to watch.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Sonny Gray is expected to record an average of 6 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Daniel Schneemann has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 90.5-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Lane Thomas, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.84 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 68% ROI)