Explore Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Guardians – 6/27/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians

On June 27, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the St. Louis Cardinals in an intriguing Interleague matchup at Progressive Field. Both teams are in the thick of the season, with the Guardians sitting at 40-39, while the Cardinals boast a record of 44-38, indicating a slight edge in performance for St. Louis. This game marks the beginning of their series, and both clubs will be looking to capitalize on the opportunity to gain momentum.

Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz, projected to start, has had a challenging season with a 4-8 record and an average ERA of 4.30. However, his xFIP of 3.66 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. Ortiz’s performance may be critical, especially against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 14th in MLB offensively, boasting a solid .333 batting average from their best hitter over the last week.

On the mound for St. Louis is Sonny Gray, who has established himself as one of the league’s better pitchers this season, ranking 28th overall with a record of 7-2 and a strong ERA of 3.72. Gray’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which would be sufficient to keep the Cardinals competitive.

While the Guardians’ offense struggles, ranking 25th in MLB, their bullpen is a bright spot, ranked 7th best overall. This gives them a fighting chance, especially if Ortiz can hold off the Cardinals early. The Guardians have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Cardinals are projected at 4.45 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball hitters, Sonny Gray and his 31% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today’s outing matching up with 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Luis L. Ortiz has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 10.03 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.58 — a 1.45 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bo Naylor has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 79.9-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Lane Thomas, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.84 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Kyle Manzardo has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)