Explore Orioles vs Nationals Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 4/23/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Washington Nationals

On April 23, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Baltimore Orioles at Nationals Park in what is shaping up to be a closely contested Interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 10-13 and the Orioles at 9-13. In their last game, the Nationals dropped a tight contest to the Orioles, adding pressure as they look to bounce back.

Trevor Williams is set to take the mound for Washington, bringing a 1-2 record and a troubling 5.95 ERA into this matchup. While Williams ranks as the 245th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression. On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a solid 2-1 record and an impressive 3.43 ERA, will be aiming to maintain his strong performance. However, his 4.98 xFIP indicates he might have benefited from some luck early in the season.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd overall in MLB, although they do boast a respectable 9th rank in stolen bases. The Orioles, meanwhile, rank 13th in the league, powered by a potent home run threat that has them 6th in that category. Yet, both lineups are struggling in other areas, with the Nationals averaging 4.48 runs per game compared to the Orioles’ projected 5.02 runs.

Despite their poor overall records, the projections lean slightly in favor of the Nationals, suggesting they could pull off a win at home against a struggling Orioles squad. With both teams desperate for a victory, expect a competitive matchup as they battle to turn their seasons around.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Tomoyuki Sugano (33.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 7 FB hitters in Washington’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jackson Holliday usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Trevor Williams.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-145)
  The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Trevor Williams’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.6% compared to 51.5% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  James Wood has big-time power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Wood.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.95 Units / 114% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 42% ROI)