Explore Mets vs Phillies Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 6/22/2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

On June 22, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park in what is shaping up to be another thrilling installment of this National League East rivalry. Both teams boast identical records of 46-31, marking them as two of the best clubs in the league this season. The stakes are high, especially after the Mets took the win yesterday against the Phillies, dominating with an 11-4 victory.

The matchup on the mound features Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies, who has had an up-and-down season with a 6-3 record and a 4.41 ERA. Luzardo’s advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as reflected in his 3.23 xFIP, indicating he could turn things around. He’s projected to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, but his struggle with walks—averaging 1.5—could be detrimental.

Opposing him is David Peterson, who’s had a stellar season with a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA. Peterson’s projections indicate he may allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.6 innings, but he faces concerns with his hit and walk rates, projecting at 6.4 hits and 1.9 walks. While his current performance is exceptional, projections hint at potential regression.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 6th in MLB, bolstered by a strong batting average that sits at 2nd overall. Meanwhile, the Mets are 5th in overall offensive output but falter slightly in batting average at 17th. Given the high Game Total of 9.0 runs, betting markets anticipate a competitive matchup, with the Phillies’ moneyline at -120 signaling a close contest. With a solid hitting environment and an opportunity for Luzardo to improve, the Phillies could make a significant statement in this series.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, David Peterson will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies bats have excelled when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 2nd-best in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+10.10 Units / 168% ROI)