Explore Mets vs Phillies Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 6/22/2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets in a pivotal National League East matchup on June 22, 2025, following an eventful prior game where the Mets triumphed over the Phillies with an 11-4 finish. Both teams currently stand with identical records of 46-31, showcasing impressive seasons, but only one can seize momentum in this tightly contested series.

Jesus Luzardo is projected to start for the Phillies, while David Peterson is set to take the mound for the Mets. Luzardo, ranked as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had a mixed season with a 6-3 record and an average ERA of 4.41. However, his 3.23 xFIP indicates he could perform better than his ERA suggests. Luzardo’s recent outing was a struggle, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings, which raises concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Mets lineup.

On the other side, Peterson has been more consistent, sporting an impressive 2.60 ERA coupled with a solid 5-2 record. Yet, projections suggest he may be overperforming, as his xFIP of 3.45 suggests potential regression. While both pitchers project to go roughly 5.6 innings today, the Phillies may have a slight edge with their stronger offense, which ranks 6th overall in the league and 2nd in batting average.

With an implied team total of 4.92 runs, the Phillies are expected to capitalize on their home advantage and bounce back from yesterday’s loss. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense, though ranked 5th in overall talent, has been hit-or-miss lately, and they will need a strong performance from Peterson to keep pace. This matchup promises to be closely contested, with the potential for a high-scoring affair given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the current Game Total set at 9.5 runs.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, David Peterson will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies bats have excelled when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 2nd-best in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)