Explore Mariners vs Red Sox Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/29/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners kick off their series at Fenway Park on July 29, 2024, in a clash of American League teams both having above-average seasons. The Red Sox, with a 55-49 record, are coming off a solid stretch of games, while the Mariners, sitting at 56-51, also look to maintain their strong performance.

Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox’s right-hander, is set to take the mound. Pivetta has had an interesting season — he’s posted a 4-7 win/loss record with a 4.50 ERA, which is slightly misleading compared to his 3.34 xFIP. This suggests he’s been rather unlucky and might see better results moving forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expects Pivetta to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters.

On the other side, the Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert, who boasts a 6-6 record and a stellar 2.72 ERA. However, his 3.39 xFIP indicates some potential regression. Gilbert is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, giving up 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters according to the projections.

The Red Sox’s offense sits among the league’s elite, ranking 4th in batting average, 7th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Their lineup is firing on all cylinders, and Tyler O’Neill is a significant reason for that. Over the last week, O’Neill has put up a sizzling .429 batting average and a 1.578 OPS, with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs in just 5 games.

In contrast, the Mariners struggle offensively, ranking 27th overall and dead last in team batting average. Cal Raleigh has been a bright spot recently, hitting .304 with a 1.016 OPS over his last 6 games, but the Mariners’ offense will need to step up to support their pitchers.

Boston holds a slight edge according to betting markets, with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%. Seattle, at +100, has an implied win probability of 48%, suggesting a close game is expected.

This matchup could come down to which team can capitalize on their strengths better — Boston’s powerful lineup or Seattle’s solid pitching. With both teams looking to solidify their playoff positions, this series opener promises to be a tightly contested game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.4% more often this season (67.3%) than he did last season (57.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  In his last outing, Nick Pivetta conceded a whopping 7 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  This season, Tyler O’Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.1 mph compared to last year’s 92.8 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 36 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)