Explore Guardians vs Giants Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 6/17/25

Cleveland Guardians

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San Francisco Giants

On June 17, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Cleveland Guardians in an Interleague matchup at Oracle Park. This game is notable as it marks the first meeting of the season between these two teams. The Giants, with a strong record of 41-31, are experiencing a solid campaign thus far, while the Guardians hover around .500 at 35-35. Notably, the Giants’ ace, Robbie Ray, is coming off a no-hitter, showcasing his dominance on the mound.

Robbie Ray, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Giants. He boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 8-1 and an elite ERA of 2.55 this season. While his xFIP of 3.59 suggests he may have been lucky, his ability to strike out 6.6 batters on average per game indicates he can still be effective against opposing lineups. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with right-hander Slade Cecconi, who has struggled this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.26. The projections suggest Cecconi could be in for a tough outing, as he has struggled with allowing hits, averaging 5.1 per game.

Offensively, the Giants rank 22nd in MLB, which is concerning given their record, while the Guardians sit even lower at 25th. The Giants’ potential to produce runs may rely heavily on their best hitter, who has been impactful recently, recording a .350 batting average over the last week. The Guardians also have a standout hitter, but their overall offensive struggles could hinder their chances against a strong pitcher like Ray.

With the Giants being favored with a moneyline of -155 and their top-tier bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they seem poised to take advantage of the Guardians’ weaknesses, making this matchup one to watch.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Gabriel Arias has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 8 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robbie Ray will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.4-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect better results for the San Francisco Giants offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games (+6.29 Units / 8% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)