San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-120
On April 13, 2025, a compelling Interleague matchup unfolds at Yankee Stadium as the New York Yankees take on the San Francisco Giants. The Yankees enter this game with an 8-6 record, showcasing a strong offense that’s ranked 1st in MLB, while the Giants, boasting a 10-4 record, have been impressive as well. Notably, in their last game, the Yankees secured a convincing 8-4 victory against the Giants.
The spotlight will be on the pitching duel between Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb. Rodon, the Yankees’ left-handed starter, has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.19, making him the 144th best starting pitcher in the league according to the leading MLB projection system. His last outing was particularly rough, giving up 5 earned runs over 6 innings. In contrast, Logan Webb has been stellar for the Giants, holding a 1-0 record and a remarkable 1.89 ERA, ranking 6th among starting pitchers. He pitched 7 innings of shutout baseball in his last start, elevating his status as an elite pitcher.
However, the Yankees’ offense, which leads MLB in power with 27 home runs, poses a significant threat. This potent lineup could exploit Webb’s vulnerability to hard contact, particularly since he has a high ground ball rate.
The Yankees will look to leverage their offensive depth against Webb, who, despite his impressive numbers, might feel the pressure against a lineup that excels at hitting for power. Betting markets currently favor the Yankees, who have an average implied total of 4.10 runs for the game. Given their strong offensive capabilities, the Yankees may well exceed expectations today, especially if Rodon can manage to navigate through the Giants’ lineup effectively.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Logan Webb’s 2068.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
New York Yankees Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Carlos Rodon may not stay in the game more than a couple frames consider he will function as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Cody Bellinger has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- New York Yankees bats collectively place in the league for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 10.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+165)The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 90 of their last 177 games (+7.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Run Line +1.5 (-190)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 162 games (+1.45 Units / 1% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Heliot Ramos has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.05 Units / 73% ROI)