New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)+100
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the New York Yankees on April 18, 2025, the stakes are higher than ever. After a tough 6-3 loss to the Yankees the previous day, the Rays find themselves struggling with a record of 8-11. Meanwhile, the Yankees are riding high with a 12-7 record and are looking to extend their winning streak against their division rivals.
In this matchup, the Rays will send Drew Rasmussen to the mound. Despite his team’s struggles, Rasmussen has been a standout performer, ranking 17th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced metrics. He boasts an impressive ERA of 0.60 this season, although his 2.75 xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression. Rasmussen is a high-groundball pitcher, which could work to his advantage against a Yankees offense that, while powerful, relies heavily on hitting home runs.
Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the Yankees, and while he has shown flashes of potential, his current ERA of 5.48 indicates he’s been inconsistent. The projections suggest he may be in line for improvement, but his performance thus far has left much to be desired.
Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB, fueled by a lineup that boasts the highest home run total in the league. In contrast, the Rays, despite their struggles, have a strong offensive ranking of 7th, showcasing their ability to score runs.
With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets are expecting a tight contest. The Rays have an implied team total of 3.90 runs, suggesting they may struggle against the Yankees’ potent attack. However, if Rasmussen can navigate the Yankees’ lineup effectively, Tampa Bay has a chance to turn their season around.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Carlos Rodon’s 93.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 2.5-mph decrease from last season’s 95.6-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The 10.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 squad in the majors since the start of last season by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Drew Rasmussen (47.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in New York’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Jonathan Aranda has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 68% ROI)