Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Rangers vs Cubs – April 7, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Texas Rangers on April 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Cubs stand at 7-5 this season and have shown flashes of brilliance, especially with their offense ranking 11th overall in MLB. Meanwhile, the Rangers are off to a hot start at 8-2, showcasing their own potential despite a lackluster offensive ranking of 29th.

In their last game, the Cubs’ star hitter delivered an impressive performance, recording 10 RBIs over the past week. With such momentum, they’ll look to capitalize on their power, as they rank 5th in home runs this season. However, they face a tough challenge against Nathan Eovaldi, who is projected to start for Texas. Eovaldi has been exceptional, boasting a 1.20 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 33.3%, which could be problematic for a Cubs lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts.

Justin Steele, the Cubs’ projected starter, has had a mixed season with a 2-1 record, but he struggles with a high 6.89 ERA. His 3.77 xFIP suggests he could be due for improvement, but he’ll need to address his tendency to give up hits and walks, as he averages 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks per game. While Steele projects to pitch 6.2 innings and allow only 1.8 earned runs, that could be challenging against a Rangers offense that, despite its overall struggles, still manages to get on base.

The Cubs are currently favored with a moneyline of -130, indicating a close contest is expected. With both teams having strong pitchers, the game total is set low at 6.0 runs, suggesting a tight battle on the mound. As the Cubs aim to build on their recent success, they will need to harness their power while navigating a tough matchup against Eovaldi and the Rangers.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.8% more often this year (71.5%) than he did last year (62.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Wyatt Langford’s launch angle this year (23.8°) is a significant increase over his 16.2° figure last season.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Justin Steele’s 90.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decrease from last season’s 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Ian Happ’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 90.8-mph average last year has dropped to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Ian Happ has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+6.85 Units / 137% ROI)