Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Phillies vs Marlins – June 19, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

On June 19, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup at LoanDepot Park. Following yesterday’s game, in which the Phillies secured a 4-2 victory over the Marlins, both teams are looking to establish their trajectories as the season progresses. Currently, the Marlins sit at 29-43 on the season, while the Phillies boast a solid 44-30 record.

The Marlins have struggled throughout the year, ranking 26th in MLB for home runs, which could be problematic against a capable pitcher like Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez, currently ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a stellar 3.05 ERA and is projected to pitch 6.1 innings today. This puts him in a good position to contain a Marlins offense that is only average overall, despite their respectable batting average ranking of 11th in MLB.

Edward Cabrera, slated to take the mound for the Marlins, has had a below-average season, ranking 121st among pitchers and holding a 4.10 ERA. His last outing was a brief 3-inning start, which included 2 earned runs. Cabrera’s projections indicate he may allow 2.3 earned runs and 4.4 hits on average, which could be problematic against a Phillies offense that ranks 6th in MLB.

While the Marlins are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, the projections suggest that Cabrera’s struggles could align well with Sanchez’s ability to minimize damage. This game presents an opportunity for the Marlins to challenge their recent misfortunes, but they will need to capitalize on Sanchez’s less-than-ideal hit and walk projections to have a fighting chance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Cristopher Sanchez and his 54.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position today being matched up with 4 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kyle Schwarber has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 29.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Edward Cabrera has relied on his change-up 7.8% less often this year (25.4%) than he did last year (33.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 games (+13.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)