Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Giants vs Rockies – July 19, 2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on July 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in the lower half of the National League West standings. The Rockies, with a 34-63 record, are enduring a rough season, while the Giants, at 47-50, aim to climb back to .500 and potentially salvage their season.

The Rockies, fresh off an 8-5 victory over the Mets, will look to build on that momentum. Despite being significant underdogs in their last game with a closing Moneyline price of +170, they managed to pull off an impressive win. Brenton Doyle, the Rockies’ best hitter this season, has been a bright spot with a .276 batting average, 15 home runs, and 20 stolen bases.

Cal Quantrill, the Rockies’ scheduled starter, has had a shaky season. With a 6-7 record and a 4.13 ERA, he ranks as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 4.76 FIP indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Quantrill’s last outing was particularly rough, lasting only 2 innings and allowing 5 earned runs. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 18th in MLB, will need to provide ample support.

The Giants, on the other hand, come off a narrow 3-2 victory against the Twins, where they were favored with a -160 Moneyline price. Matt Chapman continues to lead their offense, boasting a .276 batting average, 13 home runs, and 9 stolen bases. Despite their below-average season, the Giants’ bats have shown glimpses of potential, ranking 13th in overall offense.

Kyle Harrison, who will start for the Giants, holds a 5-4 record with a 4.08 ERA. Although he pitched well in his last start, going 5 innings with just 1 earned run, his 4.95 xERA suggests he has been lucky and may face challenges moving forward. Harrison’s low strikeout rate (19.8 K%) might play well against the Rockies, who are among the highest strikeout teams in MLB.

From a betting perspective, the current odds reflect a close game, with the Rockies at +115 and the Giants at -135. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rockies a 47% win probability, slightly higher than the implied odds. With both teams projected to score high, this matchup promises plenty of action, and the Rockies might just have a slight edge in what is anticipated to be a tight contest.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Kyle Harrison will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Colorado’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Mike Yastrzemski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the San Francisco Giants are expected to score the most runs (6.15 on average) of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+110)
  The Colorado Rockies infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Brendan Rodgers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 59 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-150/+120)
  Cal Quantrill has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 64% ROI)