Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Cubs vs Mets – May 11, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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New York Mets

On May 11, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets enter this game with an impressive 25-15 record, while the Cubs are also performing well at 23-17. In their previous game, the Cubs managed a significant 5-1 victory, showcasing their potent offense against the Mets’ struggling bullpen, which ranks 28th in MLB according to advanced statistics.

As for the pitching matchup, the Mets are expected to send Griffin Canning to the mound, who has a solid 5-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.50 this season. However, advanced projections suggest that his luck may not hold, given his higher xFIP of 3.40, indicating he may be in for some performance regression. Canning, a right-hander known for his groundball tendencies (53% GB%), will face a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 58 home runs this season, a potent challenge.

On the other side, Chicago will counter with Matthew Boyd, a left-hander boasting a 3-2 record and a stellar ERA of 2.75. Boyd has similar xFIP concerns at 4.09, hinting that he, too, might have been a bit fortunate. Boyd’s ability to manage the game will be vital as he faces a Mets offense that ranks 5th in MLB overall and 9th in home runs.

Betting markets favor the Mets, reflected in the moneyline set at -130. However, with both teams showing offensive firepower, a close game is expected, and the team’s performance could hinge on the pitchers’ ability to navigate tough lineups while minimizing walks. The projected game total stands at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Matthew Boyd was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme groundball bats like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Griffin Canning.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Because groundball batters hold a big edge over flyball pitchers, Griffin Canning and his 42.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in this outing facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Starling Marte is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)