Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Angels vs Rangers – September 7, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to end their disappointing seasons on a high note. The Rangers, currently sitting at 68-74, have struggled this year, ranking 23rd in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Angels find themselves at 59-82, with an offense that ranks 26th overall. This matchup is crucial for both squads, as they aim to gain momentum heading into the final stretch.

In their last game, the Rangers faced off against the Angels, where Texas managed to secure a narrow victory. Jack Leiter is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, despite his rocky season. With a 0-2 record and an alarming ERA of 11.78, Leiter has struggled significantly, ranking as the 214th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his 5.81 xFIP suggests he may be due for some luck to turn around.

On the other side, Tyler Anderson will start for the Angels. With a more respectable 10-12 record and a solid ERA of 3.55, Anderson has shown he can be effective, although his 4.87 xFIP indicates he might be overperforming.

Offensively, Wyatt Langford has been a bright spot for the Rangers, hitting .375 over the last week, while Taylor Ward has also been impressive for the Angels, boasting an OPS of 1.249 in the same timeframe. The Rangers are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a projected team total of 4.54 runs. With both pitchers having fluctuating performances, this game could come down to which offense can capitalize on their opportunities. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive showdown ahead.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed bats today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mickey Moniak is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Jack Leiter’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2409 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2344 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Wyatt Langford has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 95.6-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 28 games (+16.35 Units / 48% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+8.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)