Explore Dodgers vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 8/02/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 2, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position after losing the previous game in this series by a score of 5-0. Currently, the Rays sit at 54-57, indicating an average season, while the Dodgers hold a more impressive 64-46 record, showcasing their strong performance throughout the year.

Rays’ right-hander Drew Rasmussen is projected to start, coming off a solid outing where he went 5 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 5. However, his 3.52 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate in recent performances and could face difficulties against a potent Dodgers lineup that has hit 164 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB. Rasmussen’s 50% groundball rate may provide him an edge, potentially mitigating the Dodgers’ power, but his tendency to allow an average of 4.8 hits and 1.2 walks per game this season raises concerns.

On the other side, Blake Snell will take the mound for the Dodgers. Despite only having started 2 games this year, Snell has posted an impressive 2.00 ERA. Nevertheless, his 6.86 xFIP indicates that he may also be riding a wave of luck. With projections suggesting he will pitch 4.8 innings today, his ability to manage walks effectively will be critical against a Rays team that ranks 15th in overall offensive performance.

Looking ahead, this matchup stands as a critical test for Tampa Bay, who are projected to score an average of 3.90 runs against a Dodgers offense that has the edge with a projected 4.10 runs. With the odds favoring Los Angeles slightly, it will be intriguing to see if the Rays can leverage their strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, to shift the momentum in their favor and even the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Blake Snell has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Bats such as Mookie Betts with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Ha-seong Kim has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe, Hunter Feduccia).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 away games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Andy Pages has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.95 Units / 38% ROI)