Explore Cubs vs Marlins Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 5/19/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Miami Marlins

In a National League clash on May 19, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park. The Cubs come into this matchup riding a wave of success, boasting a 28-19 record, while the Marlins lag significantly behind at 18-27, struggling to find their footing this season. Recently, the Marlins have seen their ace, Edward Cabrera, experience a challenging start with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.52, despite projections suggesting he could perform better.

Cabrera will be matched against Ben Brown, who has a respectable 3-3 record and an average ERA of 4.75. The Cubs will look to capitalize on Cabrera’s high walk rate, as their offense ranks 4th in MLB and is adept at being patient at the plate. Additionally, the projections indicate that Brown is set to outperform Cabrera, with Brown expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs compared to Cabrera’s less favorable 2.8 earned runs over 5.0 innings.

The Marlins’ offense has been lackluster this season, ranking only 20th overall in the league. In contrast, the Cubs excel, particularly in home runs, ranking 3rd in MLB. This offensive gap gives the Cubs a clear advantage, especially considering the Marlins have struggled with home runs this season as well. With Cabrera’s difficulties in controlling walks facing a Cubs lineup that ranks among the highest for drawing walks, it could be a long day for Miami.

Despite being significant underdogs in betting markets, the game total currently sits at a high 9.0 runs, suggesting at least some offensive fireworks are anticipated. With the Cubs strongly favored to win, they appear poised to continue their successful campaign, while the Marlins face another uphill battle in their quest for respectability this season.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Ben Brown has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against 6 same-handed batters in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+145)
  Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Stowers has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 23.6% seasonal rate to 34.8% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Derek Hill, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.80 Units / 51% ROI)