Explore Cubs vs Marlins Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 5/19/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins

In a National League clash on May 19, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park. The Cubs come into this matchup riding a wave of success, boasting a 28-19 record, while the Marlins lag significantly behind at 18-27, struggling to find their footing this season. Recently, the Marlins have seen their ace, Edward Cabrera, experience a challenging start with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.52, despite projections suggesting he could perform better.

Cabrera will be matched against Ben Brown, who has a respectable 3-3 record and an average ERA of 4.75. The Cubs will look to capitalize on Cabrera’s high walk rate, as their offense ranks 4th in MLB and is adept at being patient at the plate. Additionally, the projections indicate that Brown is set to outperform Cabrera, with Brown expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs compared to Cabrera’s less favorable 2.8 earned runs over 5.0 innings.

The Marlins’ offense has been lackluster this season, ranking only 20th overall in the league. In contrast, the Cubs excel, particularly in home runs, ranking 3rd in MLB. This offensive gap gives the Cubs a clear advantage, especially considering the Marlins have struggled with home runs this season as well. With Cabrera’s difficulties in controlling walks facing a Cubs lineup that ranks among the highest for drawing walks, it could be a long day for Miami.

Despite being significant underdogs in betting markets, the game total currently sits at a high 9.0 runs, suggesting at least some offensive fireworks are anticipated. With the Cubs strongly favored to win, they appear poised to continue their successful campaign, while the Marlins face another uphill battle in their quest for respectability this season.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ben Brown has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 60.9% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under Total Bases
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Miami (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under Total Bases
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Edward Cabrera’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 90th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under Hits
  Matt Mervis is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)