Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Twins vs Royals – April 7, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on April 7, 2025, both teams find themselves underwhelming in the early season. Kansas City enters the game with a record of 4-5, while Minnesota struggles even more at 3-6, leading them to both be described as having a “bad” and “terrible” season, respectively. The Royals are projected to start Michael Lorenzen, a right-handed pitcher who’s had a rough go so far this season, with an 0-1 record and a 5.06 ERA. On the other hand, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, who has a more average ERA of 4.50 but also presents a below-average pitcher profile.

This game marks the first in a series between these two struggling teams. The Royals’ offense ranks 47th in the league, while the Twins follow closely behind at 59th—both rankings indicative of their offensive struggles. Lorenzen’s high walk rate of 12.5% could be a potential advantage for him, as the Twins have the 5th least walks in MLB. This inconsistency may play a role in today’s matchup.

Additionally, projections suggest that Lorenzen could pitch roughly 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. Meanwhile, Woods Richard is likely to log around 4.9 innings, but his projections show he might also struggle to contain the Royals’ offense, which has been particularly ineffective.

Betting markets indicate this game could be close, with the Royals set at a moneyline of -120, suggesting a modest edge in their favor. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. With both teams looking to find their footing, this matchup could set the tone for the series ahead.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Matt Wallner’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 98.4-mph figure last season has fallen off to 96.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Michael Lorenzen has relied on his cut-fastball 6.3% more often this season (16.5%) than he did last year (10.2%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+15.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 141 games (+11.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)