Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Nationals vs Twins – July 27, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals prepare to face off on July 27, 2025, at Target Field, both teams are looking to build momentum after their contrasting results in the previous game. The Nationals managed a solid 9-3 victory over the Twins on July 26, which highlighted the struggles of the Minnesota pitching staff and provided a much-needed boost for Washington.

Currently, the Twins sit at 50-54 this season, amidst an underwhelming campaign, while the Nationals hold a record of 42-62, significantly underperforming as well. The Twins are projected to start Cole Sands, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled recently, projecting just 1.5 innings pitched with 0.8 earned runs allowed on average. Sands’ last outing was an abbreviated 2-inning stint with no earned runs, yet the projections indicate high potential for hits against him.

In contrast, Washington’s Jake Irvin will take the mound. Irvin’s recent performance has been less than stellar, highlighted by a disastrous last start where he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings pitched. He comes into this matchup with a 4.81 ERA and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics.

Offensively, the Twins are ranked 16th in MLB, showcasing an average talent level, while the Nationals rank 22nd, indicating their struggles at the plate. However, Minnesota’s best hitter is in strong form, bolstering their lineup with a recent impressive stretch.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, and the Twins favored with a moneyline of -165, the projections suggest a lean toward Minnesota finding success at home, especially if they can capitalize on Irvin’s vulnerabilities on the mound.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Jake Irvin’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.3 mph this year (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Riley Adams has big-time power (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (33.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cole Sands has a pitch-to-contact profile (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Adams.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Paul DeJong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Cole Sands will “start” for Minnesota Twins today but will be treated as more of an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Christian Vazquez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.5-mph average last year has decreased to 86.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.35 Units / 52% ROI)