Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Mets vs Padres – July 28, 2025

New York Mets

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San Diego Padres

On July 28, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the New York Mets in the first game of their series at Petco Park. Both teams are positioned in the National League, with the Mets holding a 62-44 record, showcasing a strong season, while the Padres sit at 57-49, indicating an above-average campaign. Despite the Padres’ solid performance, they face an uphill battle in this matchup, especially considering that the Mets recently showcased their offensive prowess.

The Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who, despite being ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has struggled this season with a 3-10 win/loss record and an average ERA of 4.59. Cease’s 3.37 xFIP suggests some bad luck this year, indicating he could perform better moving forward. In contrast, the Mets will counter with Frankie Montas, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 3-1 record and an ERA of 4.62. The projections indicate that Montas may also improve, but his current form raises questions about his effectiveness.

Offensively, the Padres have had a tough road, ranking 23rd in MLB in overall offensive talent. While they rank 16th in batting average, they are a dismal 29th in home runs, which could give the Mets an edge, especially as they boast the 8th best home run hitting capabilities. The Padres’ bullpen ranks 5th in MLB, a bright spot for them, while the Mets’ bullpen has struggled, sitting at 26th.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets suggest a closely contested matchup. Currently, the Padres have a moneyline of -130, reflecting a 54% implied win probability, hinting that they may be undervalued in this setting, particularly with the strength of their bullpen in play.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Among all SPs, Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ronny Mauricio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ronny Mauricio has been lucky this year. His .328 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .273.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease will “start” for San Diego Padres today but will function as an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 105 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.10 Units / 79% ROI)