Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Marlins vs Mets – August 31, 2025

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

The New York Mets welcome the Miami Marlins to Citi Field on August 31, 2025, for the fourth game of their series. The Mets, currently holding a record of 73-63, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins sit at 64-72, struggling to find their rhythm. In their previous matchup, the Mets emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and he has been a solid performer this season. With a Win/Loss record of 7-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.73, Senga ranks as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he is above average. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating a potential for regression. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, which aligns with his strong season.

On the other side, Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins. Despite being ranked 59th among MLB starters, Alcantara has struggled this year, with a 7-11 record and a troubling ERA of 5.87. His 4.32 xFIP indicates he might be due for better luck, but his projections today show he could allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.6 innings, which is average.

The Mets’ offense ranks 5th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Marlins rank 19th, indicating a significant disparity in offensive production. The Mets’ high implied team total of 4.53 runs suggests they are expected to capitalize on Alcantara’s struggles. With the Mets being a strong betting favorite at -175, they look poised to continue their winning ways against a Marlins team that has shown vulnerability throughout the season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Sandy Alcantara will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Liam Hicks’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal average has decreased to 80.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The 4th-weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-190)
  The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Miami (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+12.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 72 games (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)