Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Orioles – May 28, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and the St. Louis Cardinals continue their three-game series on May 28, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Cardinals took the previous matchup, besting the Orioles 7-4. With the Orioles struggling at 19-35, they find themselves at the bottom of the standings, while the Cardinals are posting a much better 31-24 record, indicating a solid season.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start Cade Povich, who has a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.86, suggesting he’s been below average this year. However, his 3.97 xFIP indicates he might be due for a turnaround after a decent outing in his last start where he allowed just one earned run. In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has a record of 4-2 and an impressive 3.51 ERA, although his 4.97 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 19th in MLB, with a particularly poor batting average of 22nd. Despite their struggles, they are still capable of hitting home runs, ranking 10th. Meanwhile, the Cardinals boast a solid 11th best offense and excel in batting average, sitting 3rd in that category. The Cardinals’ best hitter has been productive, accumulating 34 runs and a commendable OPS of 0.888 over the past week.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers view this matchup as competitive, placing the Orioles’ moneyline at -120 and the Cardinals at +100. The projections suggest the Orioles may have a slight edge, but they need to improve their offensive consistency to capitalize on their favorable odds.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Miles Mikolas’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (56% compared to 49% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Cade Povich’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 19th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)