Expert Player Predictions for Cardinals vs Brewers – Monday, September 02, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 2, 2024, both teams are in contrasting positions within the National League Central. The Brewers, at 80-57, are having a strong season and currently hold a solid lead in the division, while the Cardinals, sitting at 69-68, are fighting to stay relevant in a competitive race. In their last outing, the Brewers faced a tough loss against the Cincinnati Reds, falling 4-3, while the Cardinals put on a display of offensive power, defeating the New York Yankees 14-7.

Freddy Peralta is set to take the mound for the Brewers, entering the game with a 9-7 record and a respectable 3.70 ERA. His recent performance has been impressive; in his last start on August 28, he went 6 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 8 batters. Peralta is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing lineups. In contrast, Andre Pallante will pitch for the Cardinals. With a 6-6 record and a 3.80 ERA, Pallante has been solid but not as impactful, ranking 73rd among starters.

Offensively, the Brewers are ranked 8th in MLB, driven by Willy Adames, who has been their standout hitter this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals sit at 20th in offensive rankings, struggling to find consistent power, which could be a critical factor in this matchup. According to the leading MLB projection system, the Brewers are favored to win, with projections indicating they are likely to score around 4.16 runs, while the Cardinals are expected to tally just 3.57 runs on average. This game marks the first in their series, and the Brewers are looking to bounce back after their recent loss, making them a strong candidate to take the win here.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 69.8% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year. His 25.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 134 games (+14.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+3.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 42% ROI)