Expert Picks and Betting Line for Tigers vs Twins – Sunday August 17th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers prepare for their matchup on August 17, 2025, the stakes remain significant. The Twins, currently 57-66, are struggling this season, while the Tigers sit comfortably at 73-52, showcasing their strength in the American League Central. The Tigers won yesterday’s game against the Twins by a score of 8-5, continuing their solid campaign.

The Twins are projected to start Thomas Hatch, who has had a tough year so far, having made three appearances out of the bullpen and posting a 5.59 ERA. With an advanced-stat Power Ranking placing him as the 281st best starting pitcher in MLB, his uphill battle is compounded by a projection of just 4.9 innings pitched and an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed today. Meanwhile, the Tigers counter with Chris Paddack, who has a below-average 4.76 ERA this season but fared well in his last start, going six innings with only one earned run against his previous opponent.

The matchup becomes interesting when considering the relative strengths of the lineups. The Tigers boast a potent offense, ranked 9th in MLB, while the Twins are ranked 21st, struggling to find consistency at the plate. Notably, the Twins’ lineup ranks 26th in stolen bases and 24th in batting average, indicating challenges in manufacturing runs. In contrast, the Tigers feature a more balanced attack, sitting 8th in home runs despite their lack of speed on the base paths.

Betting markets suggest this will be a close game, with the Twins currently at +110 and the Tigers at -130. The projections favor the Tigers, who have shown a better overall performance this season. However, if Hatch can leverage his low-strikeout tendencies against a high-strikeout Tigers offense, there could be an unexpected twist in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-120)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Zach McKinstry will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In today’s matchup, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (92nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Thomas Hatch – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Thomas Hatch has been given a below-average leash this year, recording an -8.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Outman in the 6th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, James Outman, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 95 games (+9.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kody Clemens has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)