Expert Picks and Betting Line for Rays vs Marlins – Friday May 16th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 16, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum after their respective recent outings. The Marlins secured a 3-1 victory against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 14, while the Rays came off an impressive 8-3 win over the New York Yankees on May 10. The matchup marks the first game of the series between these two clubs.

Currently, the Marlins hold a record of 16-26, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Rays sit at 20-23, showing signs of a below-average performance. Miami’s Max Meyer, projected to start, is ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is above average despite a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.37. However, his advanced metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this season, with a lower xFIP of 3.23, hinting at potential improvement.

On the other side, Taj Bradley, the Rays’ starter, has a 3-2 record but possesses an ERA of 4.24, classified as above average. However, his FIP of 4.85 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune, which could be a concern moving forward.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 19th in MLB, while the Rays are 23rd, indicating both teams have struggled to consistently put runs on the board. Miami’s best hitter boasts a solid .300 batting average and a .946 OPS, while Tampa Bay’s top performer is hitting .325 with a .955 OPS, further showcasing the tight competition.

With both teams’ bullpens ranked poorly—Miami at 29th and Tampa Bay at 14th—this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive atmosphere as both teams seek to turn their seasons around.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his curveball 5.1% more often this year (14.1%) than he did last season (9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Rays projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Max Meyer’s 2515-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 129-rpm jump from last year’s 2386-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bats such as Derek Hill with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Taj Bradley who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)