Expert Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs D-Backs – Tuesday July 30th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals are set to square off on July 30, 2024, at Chase Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 55-51 record, indicating an above-average season so far. In contrast, the Nationals are having a below-average season with a 49-57 record.

Arizona’s Ryne Nelson is projected to start against Washington’s Patrick Corbin. Nelson, a right-hander, has shown some bad luck this season with a 4.85 ERA but a more favorable 3.90 FIP, suggesting he has room for improvement. He has a 7-6 win/loss record over 19 starts and projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. While his strikeout rate is low (16.4 K%), his expected performance today is better than his overall season numbers indicate.

On the other side, Corbin, a left-hander, has struggled mightily this season with a 2-10 record and a 5.26 ERA. His peripherals, such as a 4.24 xFIP, indicate some bad luck, but his projections for today don’t inspire much confidence. He’s expected to allow 3.5 earned runs over 5.1 innings and has a poor strikeout projection of 3.5.

The Diamondbacks hold a significant edge in several key areas. Their offense ranks 8th best in MLB, with a strong 7th place in team batting average. Ketel Marte has been on fire over the last week, hitting .429 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs. In contrast, the Nationals’ offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall and 29th in home runs. Juan Yepez has been a bright spot for Washington, hitting .348 with 8 RBIs over the last week, but he’ll need more support.

Bullpen performance could also be a deciding factor. Arizona’s bullpen ranks 8th in MLB, while Washington’s bullpen is near the bottom at 29th. This disparity could be crucial in the later innings.

The Diamondbacks are currently favored with a moneyline of -180, giving them an implied win probability of 62%. With their stronger offense, superior bullpen, and the recent performance of key players like Ketel Marte, Arizona looks well-positioned to take this game in their home ballpark.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Patrick Corbin will wring up 3.4 strikeouts in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Jacob Young’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 84.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 79.7-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ryne Nelson’s cutter rate has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (14.8% to 20.6%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.9) provides evidence that Randal Grichuk has experienced some negative variance this year with his 10.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+12.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 107 games (+8.58 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)