Expert Picks and Betting Line for Mets vs Yankees – Saturday May 17th, 2025

New York Mets

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees host the New York Mets on May 17, 2025, for the second game of their Interleague series. This matchup features two teams enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 26-18 and the Mets slightly ahead at 28-17. The rivalry is heightened by the fact that both teams are competing for position in the crowded playoff race.

In their last outing, the Yankees faced the Mets and delivered a decisive performance. Clarke Schmidt is set to take the mound for the Yankees. While Schmidt has had an average season with a 4.73 ERA and a 1-1 record over five starts, his 3.06 xERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, implying a potential for improvement. Schmidt projects to pitch about five innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to surrender 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks could be a concern against a potent Mets lineup.

The Mets counter with Griffin Canning, who boasts an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar 2.36 ERA over eight starts. However, Canning’s 3.38 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune, and his projections suggest he might struggle, allowing 3.2 earned runs in roughly five innings.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 2nd in MLB, showcasing a remarkable ability to put runs on the board, highlighted by their league-leading 76 home runs. The Mets also bring a strong offense, ranking 6th overall. With high game totals of 9.5 runs, this matchup promises plenty of scoring opportunities.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Griffin Canning has gone to his slider 11% more often this season (35%) than he did last year (24%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Juan Soto has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 30.3% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Ben Rice has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+0.95 Units / 24% ROI)