Examine the Tigers vs Marlins Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Friday, September 12, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Detroit Tigers on September 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Marlins, sitting at 68-79, are having a below-average season, while the Tigers, with an impressive 84-63 record, are enjoying a strong campaign. Miami is a considerable underdog in this matchup, with a moneyline of +175, reflecting their 35% implied probability of victory.

In their last matchup, the Tigers showcased their offensive prowess, with their best hitter recording 6 RBIs and 2 home runs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ top performer has been solid but less explosive, hitting .412 with 5 RBIs during the same stretch. The contrast in their offensive capabilities is stark; the Marlins rank 21st in MLB for runs scored, while the Tigers are 11th.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Sandy Alcantara, who has struggled this season with a 5.67 ERA and an 8-12 record. Alcantara’s 4.32 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, but he faces a tall order against the Tigers’ lineup, which strikes out frequently. Interestingly, Alcantara’s low strikeout rate may provide a slight advantage against a high-strikeout team like Detroit.

Opposing him will be elite left-hander Tarik Skubal, who boasts a remarkable 2.10 ERA and a stellar 13-4 record. Skubal’s strikeout capabilities will be tested against a Marlins offense that ranks as the 5th least strikeout-prone in the league. The projections suggest Skubal will dominate, potentially capitalizing on Miami’s weaknesses while limiting damage through his elite performance.

With a game total set at a mere 7.0 runs, this matchup may hinge on which pitcher can outperform expectations. Skubal’s excellence and the Tigers’ offensive edge could help them pull away, but the Marlins have enough talent to keep it competitive.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tarik Skubal’s 2347-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 121-rpm rise from last season’s 2226-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Kerry Carpenter has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 103.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-205)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Sandy Alcantara has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.8 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  As it relates to his batting average, Javier Sanoja has had some very poor luck this year. His .236 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .277.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+170)
  The 4th-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+145/-185)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 78 of their last 138 games (+15.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 36% ROI)