Examine the Rockies vs D-Backs Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Sunday, August 10, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On August 10, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies in a pivotal National League West matchup at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are looking to bounce back after their last game, where they managed a solid victory, but they still sit at 56-61 for the season, marking a below-average performance. Meanwhile, the Rockies have struggled mightily, with a dismal record of 30-86, leaving them as heavy underdogs in this contest.

Arizona is projected to start Brandon Pfaadt, who has had a mixed bag of results this year. With an 11-7 record and a 5.02 ERA, he falls into the category of below-average pitchers, ranking 161st out of approximately 350 starters. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he has had some bad luck, indicating he might perform better moving forward. Pfaadt is known for his ability to limit walks, which could be advantageous against the Rockies’ low-walk offense.

Conversely, Tanner Gordon will take the mound for Colorado. Gordon has struggled significantly, evidenced by his 2-4 record and a horrific 6.59 ERA. Though his 5.04 xFIP implies some misfortune, his low strikeout rate could be exploited against one of the most potent offenses in MLB, as the Diamondbacks rank 4th overall this season. Arizona’s lineup has been particularly effective, boasting a strong 7th ranking in home runs.

With the Diamondbacks favored heavily in this matchup, the projections suggest they will score around 5.49 runs, while the Rockies are expected to struggle to reach 3.51 runs. Given the pitching matchup and offensive rankings, this game could tilt heavily in favor of Arizona, setting the stage for what may be an essential win as they look to stabilize their season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+195)
  Tanner Gordon has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 7.71 mark is quite a bit higher than his 5.51 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all SPs, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2567 rpm grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alek Thomas has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• James McCann – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-265)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 103 games (+15.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 115 games (+13.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Alek Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+20.00 Units / 222% ROI)