Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Line and Odds – April 23, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 23, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams come off a thrilling matchup the previous day, where the Cubs edged the Dodgers 11-10. This matchup features two of the best teams in the National League, with the Dodgers holding a slight edge in the standings at 16-8 compared to the Cubs’ 15-10 record.

Matthew Boyd, who is projected to start for the Cubs, has been solid this season with a 2.01 ERA, ranking him as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression, as he has been somewhat fortunate in his outings. Boyd’s average projections indicate he will pitch around 5.0 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his high flyball rate (39%) could be a concern against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in the league with 39 home runs.

On the other hand, Noah Davis, set to start for the Dodgers, has struggled significantly. He is one of the worst pitchers in MLB and projects to pitch just 3.1 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs. With his troublesome statistics, including a tendency to give up a high number of hits (3.3 on average), the Cubs’ offense, which ranks 2nd overall and boasts a powerful combination of home runs and batting average, is poised to capitalize.

Given the Cubs’ offensive prowess and Boyd’s respectable performance this season, Chicago presents a strong case to emerge victorious despite the close betting odds, with both teams currently set at -110 on the moneyline. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for another high-scoring affair, but the Cubs may have the upper hand in this crucial series matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Noah Davis is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Freddie Freeman is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jon Berti – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball bats like Jon Berti usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Noah Davis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ian Happ has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)