Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Line and Odds – April 23, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 23, 2025, both teams are showcasing strong seasons so far. The Cubs sit at 15-10, just behind the Dodgers, who hold a record of 16-8. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it follows a thrilling game yesterday, where the Cubs edged out the Dodgers 11-10 in a high-scoring affair.

For the Cubs, Matthew Boyd is projected to take the mound. Boyd has been impressive this season with a 2.01 ERA, making him one of the more reliable starters in the league, despite a 1-2 Win/Loss record. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far. Boyd’s ability to strike out 5.2 batters on average could be crucial against a Dodgers lineup that, while powerful with 39 home runs this season (ranking 2nd in MLB), has struggled with consistency.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send Ben Casparius to the hill. Casparius has faced challenges this year, as indicated by his 4.11 ERA, which is above average but not stellar. With a high flyball rate of 41%, he may become a target for the Cubs’ potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB and has been particularly effective at hitting home runs. The projections suggest that while Casparius has good control, he may find it difficult to navigate through a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.

Given the Cubs’ rankings—1st in runs and 3rd in batting average—it’s no surprise that they have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs for this game. Considering Boyd’s strong performance and the Cubs’ powerful offense, they present significant value in today’s matchup against a struggling Dodgers pitcher. Expect another high-octane game as both teams vie for an important series win.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Ben Casparius – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Casparius to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 3 IP.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Freddie Freeman is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Typically, batters like Justin Turner who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ben Casparius.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Ian Happ has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Justin Turner has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)