Dodgers vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, July 07, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Milwaukee Brewers

On July 7, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field in a pivotal National League matchup. Both teams are in contention, with the Dodgers leading the division with a record of 56-35, while the Brewers sit at 50-40, showcasing solid performances this season. The Brewers are looking to capitalize on their home advantage after a recent strong showing by their best hitter, who has been on fire, batting .364 with a 1.127 OPS over the last week.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee. Although he has an impressive 9-4 record and a solid ERA of 2.91, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 4.02 xFIP. Peralta’s tendency to give up fly balls (39% FB%) could be concerning against a powerful Dodgers offense that leads MLB with 141 home runs this year.

On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is slated to start for Los Angeles. With an elite ranking of 7th among MLB starting pitchers, his 2.51 ERA and a 3.03 xFIP indicate that he has been performing exceptionally well. Yamamoto’s projections show he should allow only 2.0 earned runs today, which could be key against a Brewers lineup that ranks just 17th in MLB offensively.

Despite the Brewers being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the projections suggest they may outperform expectations. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on the effectiveness of Peralta against a Dodgers team that ranks 1st in both team batting average and home runs. If the Brewers can exploit any weaknesses in Yamamoto’s game, they might just surprise the betting market.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has relied on his curveball 5.5% less often this year (17.7%) than he did last year (23.2%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Michael Conforto’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 90.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-140)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #30 group of hitters in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 60% ROI)