Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Reds vs Brewers Match Preview – April 3, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on April 3, 2025, at American Family Field, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season with identical 2-4 records. The Brewers, having secured a narrow 3-2 victory in their last game against the Reds, are looking to build some momentum. Conversely, Cincinnati is coming off a tough 1-0 loss, adding to their woes.

In this National League Central matchup, starting pitchers Nestor Cortes and Nick Lodolo present a compelling contrast. Cortes struggles with an alarming 36.00 ERA and a concerning 29.4% walk rate, making him one of the more vulnerable starters this season. On the other hand, Lodolo has performed admirably with a 3.00 ERA and a 1-0 record in his only start. The projections suggest that Lodolo is likely to outperform Cortes in this matchup, especially given the Brewers’ high strikeout rate, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

Offensively, the Brewers have had a tough start, ranking 37th in MLB for offensive talent according to advanced statistics. Their best hitter boasts a solid .320 batting average, but overall, their offense leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, the Reds, while also struggling, have seen their top hitter excel with a .333 average and an impressive 1.027 OPS.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Brewers rank 15th overall, while the Reds sit at 23rd. This marginal advantage may provide the Brewers with a late-game edge if the contest remains tight. Betting markets see this as a close matchup, with the Brewers currently favored. Given the disparities in starting pitching and the Reds’ recent performance, it could be the Brewers’ day to turn their season around.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #10 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+660/-1300)
  TJ Friedl’s quickness has decreased this year. His 26.48 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.68 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  The Cincinnati Reds have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 158 games (+7.20 Units / 4% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 154 games (+12.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 44% ROI)