Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Orioles vs Cubs Match Preview – August 3, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field on August 3, 2025, the stakes are clear. Currently sitting second in the National League Central with a solid 64-46 record, the Cubs are in the midst of an impressive season. In contrast, the Orioles find themselves at a disappointing 51-60, languishing near the bottom of the American League East. In yesterday’s matchup, the Cubs continued their strong momentum, showcasing their offensive prowess against the Orioles.

In this Interleague series, the Cubs are projected to start Colin Rea, whose 8-5 record and 4.25 ERA highlight his capacity to compete, despite being ranked as the 248th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, Rea has been somewhat lucky this season, as suggested by his higher 4.91 xERA, indicating a possible decline in performance. On the opposite mound, the Orioles will send out Brandon Young, still searching for his first win with a 0-5 record and an alarming 6.63 ERA. Young’s projections suggest he might see some improvement, but his struggles have been evident.

Offensively, the Cubs are among the league’s elite, ranking 3rd in team batting average and home runs, as well as 3rd in stolen bases. In contrast, the Orioles sit at a middling 16th overall in offense, lacking the firepower to consistently challenge top-tier pitching. The Cubs’ high-flying offense will be looking to capitalize on Young’s flyball tendencies, knowing they have the potential to turn those flyballs into home runs.

With a Game Total of 8.0 runs, the Cubs are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185, representing an implied team total of 4.57 runs. If Chicago’s strong form holds, they may well add another win to their record against the struggling Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Brandon Young has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O’Neill, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Colin Rea’s four-seam fastball percentage has jumped by 24% from last season to this one (19.9% to 43.9%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 106 games (+9.90 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 53 away games (+18.33 Units / 31% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 56% ROI)