Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Nationals vs Cubs Match Preview – September 6, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 6, 2025, the stakes remain high for the Cubs, who are looking to solidify their playoff positioning. With a solid record of 81-60, Chicago has been riding a wave of success this season, while the Nationals, struggling at 56-84, have had a dismal campaign.

In their previous matchup, the Cubs came out on top, winning 11-5, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season. The Cubs will send Matthew Boyd to the mound, who enters the game with a solid Win/Loss record of 12-7 and an impressive ERA of 2.94. Although Boyd’s xFIP of 4.05 suggests some luck in his performance, he has proven to be a reliable starter, averaging 5.6 innings pitched today with projections for 1.8 earned runs and 6.2 strikeouts—numbers that indicate a strong outing.

On the other hand, the Nationals will counter with Brad Lord, who has struggled recently, allowing 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start. With a Win/Loss record of 4-8 and an ERA of 4.34, Lord’s low strikeout rate of 19.5% may not bode well against a Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in fewest strikeouts. Furthermore, with a lowly projected team total of just 3.29 runs for this game, the Nationals’ offensive woes are clear, particularly given their 28th rank in home runs this season.

With Cubs’ strong bullpen, currently rated 7th in MLB, and their impressive offensive capabilities, Chicago looks set to continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals team. Expect the Cubs to build on their recent momentum and capitalize on the Nationals’ pitching difficulties in this matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  In his previous start, Bradley Lord was rolling and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  When it comes to his batting average, Jacob Young has had some very poor luck this year. His .235 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .271.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
  Generating 17.7 outs per start this year on average, Matthew Boyd falls in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+17.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 113 games (+11.07 Units / 8% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-220)
  James Wood has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)