Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Nationals vs Cubs Match Preview – September 6, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 6, 2025, they come off a strong performance, having won the previous game in this series. With an impressive record of 81-60, the Cubs are enjoying a solid season, while the Nationals languish at 56-84, highlighting the disparity in their current trajectories.

Starting for the Cubs is left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd, who has solidified himself as a key asset this season, boasting a Win/Loss record of 12-7 and an excellent ERA of 2.94. Boyd’s ability to limit walks (5.9 BB%) aligns well against a Nationals offense that has struggled to generate runs, currently ranking 25th in MLB. Additionally, Boyd’s high flyball rate may not be a significant concern, given that the Nationals rank among the lowest in home runs this year, hitting just 131.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with right-hander Brad Lord, who has had a rough season with a 4-8 record and an average ERA of 4.34. Lord’s low strikeout rate (19.5 K%) could prove problematic against a Cubs lineup that ranks 10th overall in offensive capability. The projections suggest that Boyd is likely to outperform Lord, making it difficult for the Nationals to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Cubs heavily favored at a moneyline of -260 and an implied team total of 5.51 runs, they are expected to dominate this matchup. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ low implied total of 3.49 runs underscores their struggles at the plate. As both teams take the field at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will look to assert their dominance and continue their push for postseason success.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  In his previous start, Bradley Lord was rolling and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  When it comes to his batting average, Jacob Young has had some very poor luck this year. His .235 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .271.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Washington Nationals bats as a unit place 24th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)
  Generating 17.7 outs per start this year on average, Matthew Boyd falls in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Carson Kelly is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+17.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 113 games (+11.07 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 57% ROI)