Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
(-105/-115)-110
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 9, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are vying to build momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 32-35, are struggling this season, while the Rays hold a slightly better record at 35-30. This American League East clash has significant implications, especially with both teams looking to improve their standing.
In their last outings, the Red Sox notched an 11-7 victory, demonstrating their offensive potential, ranking 6th in MLB for team batting average and team home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays secured a narrow 3-2 win, showcasing their resilience. However, both teams will rely heavily on their starting pitchers, Brayan Bello and Shane Baz, who are projected to have average performances today.
Brayan Bello, who has started 9 games this season with a 2-1 record and a solid 3.91 ERA, has been somewhat fortunate according to his 4.46 xFIP, which suggests he may face challenges moving forward. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his high expected hits and walks could be problematic against a Rays offense that ranks 15th in MLB.
Shane Baz, on the other hand, brings a 5-3 record and a 4.96 ERA into this matchup. Although his ERA is below average, his 3.95 xFIP implies he may perform better than his numbers suggest. Baz is also expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing similar earned runs to Bello.
With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs, this contest promises to be a closely fought battle, as both teams look to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses. Given the Red Sox’s offensive firepower against Baz’s groundball tendencies, they may have the upper hand in this pivotal game.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Because flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball bats, Shane Baz and his 43% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s matchup being matched up with 2 opposing FB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)In the last week, Yandy Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Brayan Bello’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (52.9 vs. 45% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Trevor Story has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)Taylor Walls has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)