Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Marlins vs Rockies Matchup September 16, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 16, 2025, they are looking to shake off a dismal season, currently holding a record of 41-109. The Rockies are not in contention for a playoff spot, while the Marlins, at 70-80, are also underperforming but still have an opportunity to improve their standing.

In their last outing, the Rockies struggled, continuing their trend of poor performance. They are projected to start Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough season with a 4-15 record and an ERA of 4.97, ranking him as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Freeland’s xFIP of 4.31 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, but his projections for today indicate he will average 3.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is concerning given the Rockies’ 27th-ranked offense.

On the other hand, the Marlins will counter with Eury Perez, who, with a record of 6-5 and an average ERA of 4.67, ranks as the 76th best pitcher. While his projections are not stellar, he is expected to allow only 2.6 earned runs over 4.9 innings. The Marlins’ offense ranks 19th overall but boasts a solid batting average, sitting at 11th in the league.

Despite the Rockies being underdogs with a moneyline of +130, their high implied team total of 4.56 runs indicates some potential. However, given their recent struggles and the Marlins’ overall stronger performance, Miami looks poised to capitalize on the matchup in this series opener.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2682 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Wiemer, Connor Norby, Heriberto Hernandez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 83 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Kyle Karros has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 away games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Joey Wiemer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 67% ROI)