Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Yankees vs Mets – Friday July 04, 2025

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

On July 4, 2025, a highly anticipated Interleague matchup will unfold at Citi Field as the New York Mets take on their crosstown rivals, the New York Yankees. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Mets boasting a record of 50-38 and the Yankees at 48-39. This promises to be a pivotal clash, especially after the Mets edged out a narrow victory over the Yankees in their previous encounter on July 3, winning 3-2.

Justin Hagenman is projected to take the mound for the Mets. Although he ranks as the 309th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats—an indication of his struggles—he has posted an impressive ERA of 1.50 this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest he might not maintain this level of performance. On the other side, Marcus Stroman is set to start for the Yankees, carrying an 8.16 ERA that paints a grim picture of his current form. Despite this, his recent outing on June 29 saw him throw 5 innings with just 1 earned run, hinting at a potential rebound.

The Mets’ offense ranks 10th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, although they sit 19th in batting average. Notably, they feature a powerful lineup that ranks 7th in home runs. Conversely, the Yankees lead the league in home runs, ranking 2nd overall, while their offensive performance—ranked as the 2nd best—fully justifies their reputation for a potent batting order.

Despite the Mets’ recent success and the Yankees’ recent struggles, betting markets have set an even moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating tight competition. With a game total currently at 9.5 runs, this matchup promises an exciting Independence Day showdown.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Marcus Stroman’s 89-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 90.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like DJ LeMahieu tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Blackburn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Justin Hagenman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Justin Hagenman (36% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Over the past week, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.12 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)