Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Yankees vs Mets – Friday July 04, 2025

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the New York Yankees at Citi Field on July 4, 2025, this Interleague matchup holds significant weight for both teams. The Mets currently sit at 50-38, looking to solidify their position, while the Yankees are closely trailing at 48-39. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, but the stakes are high in this first game of the series.

In their previous outing on July 3, the Mets edged the Yankees’ crosstown rivals with a close 3-2 victory, while the Yankees fell to the Philadelphia Phillies by a score of 8-5. Notably, the Yankees will send Marcus Stroman to the mound, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 8.16. While his recent performance showed some promise, going 5 innings with just 1 earned run in his last start, the advanced projections suggest he could be in for a tough matchup against the Mets’ offense.

Justin Hagenman, set to start for the Mets, has not fared well either, projecting to pitch only 4.3 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average today. However, the Mets’ offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, which could be enough to capitalize on Stroman’s struggles. Though their batting average is 20th, they have showcased power, ranking 7th in home runs.

The projections indicate that the Mets might exceed their current implied team total of 4.50 runs, especially given the Yankees’ bullpen ranks just 18th overall. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors should anticipate an offensive showcase, particularly from the Mets who are looking to extend their winning momentum in front of their home crowd.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Marcus Stroman’s 89-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 90.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball hitters like DJ LeMahieu tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Blackburn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Justin Hagenman – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Given that flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Justin Hagenman (36% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronny Mauricio – Over/Under Total Bases
  Over the past 14 days, Ronny Mauricio’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.12 Units / 15% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)