Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Pirates vs Cardinals – Thursday August 28, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Cardinals sit at 65-69, while the Pirates are struggling at 59-75. After a tight contest yesterday, where the Cardinals fell to the Pirates 2-1, this matchup becomes crucial for St. Louis as they look to bounce back and regain momentum.

Miles Mikolas is projected to start for the Cardinals, bringing a Win/Loss record of 6-10 and an ERA of 5.17 this season. His recent performance was subpar, as he allowed 4 earned runs over just 3 innings in his last outing. The projections indicate he may pitch around 5.0 innings today, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his stats suggest he could struggle, especially given his tendency to give up hits, averaging 5.6 per game.

On the other side, Braxton Ashcraft is slated to take the mound for the Pirates. With an impressive ERA of 2.70 and a solid Win/Loss record of 4-2, he pitched well in his last start, throwing 5 innings without allowing any earned runs. However, the projections suggest Ashcraft may only go about 4.6 innings today, which is less than ideal but still offers hope for the Pirates.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 22nd in MLB, while the Pirates sit at 29th. Both teams have struggled to generate power, with the Pirates hitting the fewest home runs in the league. This could play to Mikolas’s advantage as he tends to allow fly balls, which the Pirates might have difficulty capitalizing on.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets see this matchup as a close contest, and the Cardinals, with a moneyline of -120, are slightly favored. If St. Louis can capitalize on their home field advantage and turn around their recent performance, they may find themselves on the winning side of this pivotal matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Braxton Ashcraft ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Miles Mikolas’s 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph fall off from last season’s 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters as a unit rank among the best in baseball this year (10th-) when assessing their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 123 games (+23.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)