Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Athletics vs Angels – Sunday July 28, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics face off today at Angel Stadium in the final game of their four-game series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels sitting at 45-60 and the Athletics at 44-63. The Angels, who lost 3-1 to the Athletics yesterday, will look to bounce back behind their starter, José Soriano. The Athletics’ victory was expected to be a close one, and they will aim to carry that momentum forward.

Soriano, ranked the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound for the Angels. Despite a decent 3.51 ERA across 15 starts, his peripheral indicators such as a 4.20 xERA suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Soriano’s last start was impressive, going eight innings while allowing just one earned run. He will need to bring that form against an Athletics lineup that excels in hitting home runs, ranking 4th in MLB.

Opposing Soriano is Osvaldo Bido, who has had a mixed season. While his ERA stands at a commendable 3.09###102, his 5.29 xFIP tells a different story, suggesting he has also been lucky. Bido’s last start was solid, pitching five innings and allowing just one earned run, but he faces a challenge against an Angels offense that, despite ranking 26th overall, has shown flashes of potential.

The Angels’ offense has been led by Zach Neto this season, though recently Nolan Schanuel has been a bright spot, hitting .350 with a 1.150 OPS over the last week. On the other side, the Athletics rely heavily on Brent Rooker, who boasts a .954 OPS and 25 home runs this season. Lawrence Butler has been Oakland’s hottest hitter recently, batting .429 with a 1.357 OPS over the last seven games.

Today’s game offers an intriguing matchup, with the Angels favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Los Angeles a 59% chance of victory. Given Soriano’s edge as a ground-ball pitcher facing a high-strikeout Athletics lineup, the Angels appear to have a slight advantage in this contest. Expect a competitive game as both teams look to end their series on a high note.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Osvaldo Bido is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Bats such as Seth Brown with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jose Soriano who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle McCann, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Seth Brown, Max Schuemann).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jose Soriano’s high usage percentage of his fastball (59.1% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+21.05 Units / 37% ROI)